Hey all, I’ve been scratching my head over this for weeks now and figured I’d toss it out here for some insight. I’m usually pretty solid with poker—years of grinding, running EV calcs, building ranges, and tweaking my game theory models have made me decent at finding edges. I’m not saying I’m some math wizard, but I can usually spot a good play when the numbers line up. So naturally, I thought I could carry that over to NBA over/unders. Big mistake, apparently.
I’ve been diving into basketball betting this season, focusing on totals because they feel like a puzzle I should be able to crack. I’m pulling stats from everywhere—pace, offensive efficiency, defensive ratings, player usage rates, even rest days and travel schedules. I’ve built this little spreadsheet that spits out expected points based on historical trends and matchup data. It’s not fancy, but it’s worked well enough to keep me in the green on poker decisions. I figure if I can calculate implied odds on a river bluff, I should be able to nail whether the Lakers and Nets are going over 225, right?
Wrong. I’m getting smoked. Last week, I ran the numbers on the Celtics vs. Heat game—Boston’s been a pace-up machine lately, and Miami’s defense has been leaky against fast teams. My model had the total at 231, and the line was 224.5. Seemed like a no-brainer. Final score? 108-89. I’m sitting there staring at my screen wondering where the other 40 points went. Then there was the Warriors game two days ago. I adjusted for Curry’s shooting variance and their transition scoring, pegged the over at 237 against a shaky Pelicans D. Line was 229.5. Ended up 112-104. At this point, my spreadsheet feels like it’s mocking me.
I keep thinking it’s got to be variance, like a bad run of cards, but it’s been consistent enough that I’m doubting everything. Am I overcomplicating it? In poker, I can account for human behavior—bluff frequencies, tilt, all that—but basketball feels like it’s got too many moving parts. Injuries, random shooting slumps, coaches pulling starters early. My math brain says there’s an edge somewhere, but I can’t find it. Am I missing some key stat? Or is this just a totally different beast than poker? Anyone else come from a numbers background and figure out how to make this work? I’m all ears because right now, I feel like I’m folding aces preflop every damn night.
I’ve been diving into basketball betting this season, focusing on totals because they feel like a puzzle I should be able to crack. I’m pulling stats from everywhere—pace, offensive efficiency, defensive ratings, player usage rates, even rest days and travel schedules. I’ve built this little spreadsheet that spits out expected points based on historical trends and matchup data. It’s not fancy, but it’s worked well enough to keep me in the green on poker decisions. I figure if I can calculate implied odds on a river bluff, I should be able to nail whether the Lakers and Nets are going over 225, right?
Wrong. I’m getting smoked. Last week, I ran the numbers on the Celtics vs. Heat game—Boston’s been a pace-up machine lately, and Miami’s defense has been leaky against fast teams. My model had the total at 231, and the line was 224.5. Seemed like a no-brainer. Final score? 108-89. I’m sitting there staring at my screen wondering where the other 40 points went. Then there was the Warriors game two days ago. I adjusted for Curry’s shooting variance and their transition scoring, pegged the over at 237 against a shaky Pelicans D. Line was 229.5. Ended up 112-104. At this point, my spreadsheet feels like it’s mocking me.
I keep thinking it’s got to be variance, like a bad run of cards, but it’s been consistent enough that I’m doubting everything. Am I overcomplicating it? In poker, I can account for human behavior—bluff frequencies, tilt, all that—but basketball feels like it’s got too many moving parts. Injuries, random shooting slumps, coaches pulling starters early. My math brain says there’s an edge somewhere, but I can’t find it. Am I missing some key stat? Or is this just a totally different beast than poker? Anyone else come from a numbers background and figure out how to make this work? I’m all ears because right now, I feel like I’m folding aces preflop every damn night.