Hey folks, jumping into this thread because I’m kinda scratching my head on this one too. Tracking sports trends for smarter bets sounds like a goldmine, but it’s tricky to nail down, especially when you’re digging into player performance. I’ve been experimenting with some off-the-wall approaches to betting on individual players’ output, and I’ll share what’s been working (and what’s crashed and burned).
First off, I’ve been geeking out on advanced stats for players, not just the basic points or goals. Stuff like expected goals (xG) in soccer, player efficiency ratings in basketball, or even how many minutes a guy’s been playing lately. For example, I noticed that some NBA role players go off when their star teammate is out—guys like Caris LeVert last season when Donovan Mitchell was sidelined. I check injury reports religiously and cross-reference with game logs to spot those spikes in usage. It’s not foolproof, but I hit a couple of nice over bets on points for bench guys this way.
Another thing I’ve been playing with is weather and venue data, especially for outdoor sports like football or baseball. Wind speed, temperature, even altitude can mess with a player’s performance. I found this one site that archives weather data for past games, and I’ve been matching it with box scores to see if there’s a pattern. Like, kickers in the NFL seem to struggle more with field goals in windy stadiums—shocker, right? But it’s helped me lean toward under bets on their points.
One weird angle I’ve been testing is social media sentiment. I know it sounds nuts, but hear me out. Sometimes you can catch a vibe about a player’s headspace by skimming their posts or fan reactions on X. If a guy’s been quiet online or getting roasted by fans, I’ve seen it correlate with off-games. I don’t have hard data to back this up yet, but I’m keeping a spreadsheet to track it. Last month, I skipped a bet on a certain MLB pitcher after fans were dragging him online, and sure enough, he got shelled.
The biggest lesson I’ve learned is to narrow my focus. Trying to track every player in every game is a recipe for a headache. I pick one or two sports, maybe a handful of teams, and go deep on their rosters. Also, I set aside time each week to review trends—Sunday nights are my “nerd out” time. Tools like Tableau or even just Excel help me visualize the data and spot patterns I’d miss otherwise.
If anyone’s got other tips for zeroing in on player performance trends, I’d love to hear them. I’m still figuring this out, and my wallet’s taken a few hits while I experiment. What stats or tools are you all using to stay ahead of the curve?