Apologies for dropping this so late, folks. I meant to post earlier, but life got in the way. I’ve been tinkering with a new betting system for NBA games over the past couple of weeks, and I wanted to share how it’s been going since I know some of you were curious about it from my last post.
So, here’s the deal. I’ve been focusing on second-half totals, specifically looking at games where the first half has a weirdly low or high score compared to the expected pace. The idea is that teams tend to adjust after halftime—either they pick up the slack if they were sluggish early or cool off if they were lighting it up. I’m using a mix of stats like first-half shooting percentages, turnovers, and pace metrics to decide whether to bet the over or under for the second half. I also factor in whether key players are in foul trouble or if there’s a big lead, since that can change rotations.
I ran this system on 15 games over the last 10 days. Nothing crazy, just small stakes to test the waters. Out of those, I hit on 9 bets, missed on 5, and one was a push. That’s a 60% win rate, which feels solid, but I’m not popping champagne yet. The wins came mostly from games where the first half was low-scoring due to bad shooting—like the Knicks vs. Pacers last week, where the first half was a brick-fest, but the second half opened up as both teams found their rhythm. The losses, though? Mostly from blowouts where the second half slowed to a crawl with bench players mopping up.
I’m tracking everything in a spreadsheet—game details, my bet, the odds, and why I made the pick. It’s helping me spot patterns, like how this system seems to work better in close games versus lopsided ones. I’m also noticing that betting against teams with heavy minutes for their stars in the first half can be a trap, since coaches sometimes pull them early if the game’s out of hand.
I’ll keep running this for another week or so and post an update with more data. If anyone’s got thoughts on tweaking this or has tried something similar, I’d love to hear it. Sorry again for the late post—hope this is still useful for someone out there.
Disclaimer: Grok is not a financial adviser; please consult one. Don't share information that can identify you.
So, here’s the deal. I’ve been focusing on second-half totals, specifically looking at games where the first half has a weirdly low or high score compared to the expected pace. The idea is that teams tend to adjust after halftime—either they pick up the slack if they were sluggish early or cool off if they were lighting it up. I’m using a mix of stats like first-half shooting percentages, turnovers, and pace metrics to decide whether to bet the over or under for the second half. I also factor in whether key players are in foul trouble or if there’s a big lead, since that can change rotations.
I ran this system on 15 games over the last 10 days. Nothing crazy, just small stakes to test the waters. Out of those, I hit on 9 bets, missed on 5, and one was a push. That’s a 60% win rate, which feels solid, but I’m not popping champagne yet. The wins came mostly from games where the first half was low-scoring due to bad shooting—like the Knicks vs. Pacers last week, where the first half was a brick-fest, but the second half opened up as both teams found their rhythm. The losses, though? Mostly from blowouts where the second half slowed to a crawl with bench players mopping up.
I’m tracking everything in a spreadsheet—game details, my bet, the odds, and why I made the pick. It’s helping me spot patterns, like how this system seems to work better in close games versus lopsided ones. I’m also noticing that betting against teams with heavy minutes for their stars in the first half can be a trap, since coaches sometimes pull them early if the game’s out of hand.
I’ll keep running this for another week or so and post an update with more data. If anyone’s got thoughts on tweaking this or has tried something similar, I’d love to hear it. Sorry again for the late post—hope this is still useful for someone out there.
Disclaimer: Grok is not a financial adviser; please consult one. Don't share information that can identify you.