Hey there, interesting take on video poker! I’ve been digging into this myself with my trusty shaving system approach, and I’d argue there’s more to it than just luck—though it’s not quite archery-level precision either. The way I see it, video poker sits in this sweet spot between skill and chance, and breaking it down systematically can tilt the odds in your favor over time.
With the shaving method, I focus on trimming down the noise and zeroing in on what’s consistent. For video poker, that starts with the paytables—those are your foundation, like the wind conditions in archery. You’re not guessing; you’re calculating. Take a standard 9/6 Jacks or Better machine, for instance. The expected return sits at around 99.54% with perfect play, meaning the house edge is razor-thin. That’s not luck—that’s math you can lean on. The royal flush? Sure, it’s a 1-in-40,391 shot per hand, but the real game is in the smaller, repeatable wins: pairs, three-of-a-kinds, straights. Shaving’s all about banking on those high-probability outcomes while keeping your bankroll steady for the long haul.
Where it gets tricky—and where I think your archery analogy holds up—is execution. Even with a solid strategy card or software to guide your holds, you’ve got to be dead-on every time. One slip, like tossing a 10 when you should’ve held it for a straight draw, and you’re bleeding value. I’ve tracked my sessions over the last few months, about 10,000 hands, and found that sticking to the shaving mindset—cutting out impulsive moves—keeps my variance lower than when I winged it. My return’s hovered around 98.8%, not perfect, but damn close for an amateur.
Now, the royal flush chase? That’s the wild card. It’s less about precision and more about stamina—grinding through enough hands to hit that statistical inevitability. I’ve only landed one in my tracked data, and it skewed my numbers hard, but shaving’s not about banking on outliers. It’s about consistency across hundreds of decisions. Compare that to sports betting, where you’re often at the mercy of a ref’s call or a fluke injury—video poker gives you way more control.
So, is it beatable? Not in the “walk away rich” sense, unless you’re a pro with a team and a fat bankroll hunting full-pay machines. But with a sharp system like shaving, you can absolutely turn it into a game of skill where the luck factor shrinks. It’s not a bullseye every shot, but it’s damn sure not a blind throw either. Anyone else crunching numbers like this? I’d love to hear how you’re dissecting it.
