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That upset was a straight-up gut punch! I feel you on the favorites bet—those odds looked like a lock, and I had a similar express parlay with two big names that I thought were untouchable. The stats were screaming dominance: better shooting percentages, stronger rebounding, and a deeper bench. Everything lined up for a comfortable win, and then the underdog comes out swinging like they’ve been training in a secret lab. I dug into the numbers afterward, and it’s wild how they defied every metric. The underdog shot over 50% from three, which they hadn’t done all tournament, and their bench outscored the favorites by a mile.
Looking back, the odds on that underdog were something like +800, which I completely ignored because, well, who bets on a team that’s been inconsistent all season? But now I’m rethinking my approach. One thing I noticed is that these FIBA games can hinge on momentum and intangibles—stuff like home crowd energy or a star player getting hot at the right time. Maybe it’s worth throwing a small stake on the underdog in games where the favorite’s odds are absurdly short, especially in knockout rounds where anything can happen. I’m also considering diving deeper into player matchups next time—check who’s guarding who and if there’s a weak link. Did anyone here actually bet on that upset? If so, what tipped you off? I need to know how to spot these curveballs before I’m broke.