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Hey everyone, hope you’re all having a good week so far! With biathlon season in full swing, I thought I’d drop in and share some thoughts for this week’s races. I’ve been digging into the stats and trends lately, and there’s some juicy stuff to work with if you’re looking to place a few bets.
First off, let’s talk about the big names. Johannes Thingnes Bø has been an absolute beast on the ski tracks this season—his speed is unreal, and he’s been clocking some of the fastest split times out there. But here’s the catch: his shooting’s been a bit shaky under pressure, especially in windy conditions. If the forecast holds up and we get some gusts this week, I’d be cautious about going all-in on him for an outright win. Maybe look at a head-to-head bet instead—something like Bø vs. a solid shooter like Quentin Fillon Maillet, who’s been super consistent at the range.
Speaking of shooting, that’s where the real money can hide in biathlon betting. Markets like “total misses” or “shooting mistakes” are gold if you’ve got a hunch about the weather or a biathlete’s form. Take Lisa Vittozzi, for example—she’s been lights-out on the range lately, hitting over 90% in her last three races. If the wind stays calm, she’s a safe pick for a clean shoot or even a podium finish. On the flip side, someone like Sturla Holm Lægreid tends to slip up when the pace heats up, so a bet on him racking up a couple of misses could pay off if the race gets frantic.
Now, for tactics—don’t sleep on the relay events this week. Team bets can be a nice way to mix things up, especially if you’ve got a squad like Norway or France with deep benches. Norway’s got the edge in raw ski speed, but France has been sneaky good at pulling together clean relays. I’d lean toward France for a top-three finish if the odds look decent, just because their teamwork’s been on point lately.
One last thing: keep an eye on the underdogs. Guys like Sebastian Samuelsson or even Emilien Jacquelin have been quietly building form. Samuelsson’s got a knack for popping off in sprints, and Jacquelin’s a wildcard who could steal a pursuit if he nails his shots. The odds on these two are usually pretty generous, so a small punt might turn into a nice surprise.
Anyway, that’s my two cents for this week! I’ll probably be tweaking my bets right up until the start, so if anyone’s got their own picks or spots something I missed, let me know—I’m always up for a good debate. Happy betting, and let’s hope we all cash out with something extra for the weekend!