Alright, I’ve been digging into betting on fouls in European basketball leagues lately, and I’m curious what you all think about the odds across different bookmakers. I mostly follow leagues like the EuroLeague, Liga ACB, and the Turkish BSL, and fouls have been catching my eye as an interesting market. They’re not as straightforward as points or spreads, but that’s what makes them intriguing—tons of variables to chew on.
Take EuroLeague, for example. The refs there are notoriously strict, and with the physicality of teams like Fenerbahce or Olympiacos, you’re almost guaranteed a decent foul count. I’ve noticed some books—like Bet365—tend to set the over/under lines around 40-45 total fouls per game, depending on the matchup. But then you’ve got Liga ACB, where the pace is fast and the officiating can be a bit looser, so the lines sometimes drop to 35-38. Anyone else seeing this kind of variation? I’m wondering if certain bookmakers are sharper on these markets than others.
What’s got me hooked is how team styles and refs play into it. A squad like Real Madrid, with their aggressive defense, can rack up fouls quick, especially against a crafty offense. Meanwhile, a team like Virtus Bologna might draw more fouls with their guard-heavy play. I’ve been cross-checking stats on foul averages and referee tendencies, and it feels like there’s an edge if you can spot a soft line. Last week, I hit an over on Panathinaikos vs. Barcelona at Pinnacle because the odds didn’t seem to account for their recent whistle-happy refs—ended up with 48 fouls total.
So, I’m curious—what’s your experience been like with this market? Do you find the odds at places like Betway or 1xBet more generous than, say, William Hill? Or are they all just guessing half the time? I’d love to hear if anyone’s tracked foul bets across multiple books and spotted a pattern. For me, it’s still a bit of a puzzle, but the potential’s there if you dig deep enough. What do you reckon?
Take EuroLeague, for example. The refs there are notoriously strict, and with the physicality of teams like Fenerbahce or Olympiacos, you’re almost guaranteed a decent foul count. I’ve noticed some books—like Bet365—tend to set the over/under lines around 40-45 total fouls per game, depending on the matchup. But then you’ve got Liga ACB, where the pace is fast and the officiating can be a bit looser, so the lines sometimes drop to 35-38. Anyone else seeing this kind of variation? I’m wondering if certain bookmakers are sharper on these markets than others.
What’s got me hooked is how team styles and refs play into it. A squad like Real Madrid, with their aggressive defense, can rack up fouls quick, especially against a crafty offense. Meanwhile, a team like Virtus Bologna might draw more fouls with their guard-heavy play. I’ve been cross-checking stats on foul averages and referee tendencies, and it feels like there’s an edge if you can spot a soft line. Last week, I hit an over on Panathinaikos vs. Barcelona at Pinnacle because the odds didn’t seem to account for their recent whistle-happy refs—ended up with 48 fouls total.
So, I’m curious—what’s your experience been like with this market? Do you find the odds at places like Betway or 1xBet more generous than, say, William Hill? Or are they all just guessing half the time? I’d love to hear if anyone’s tracked foul bets across multiple books and spotted a pattern. For me, it’s still a bit of a puzzle, but the potential’s there if you dig deep enough. What do you reckon?