Been diving into this myself, Lumoneko, and I get why you’re mixing systems—it’s a solid way to hedge against those unpredictable swings in La Liga matches. I’ve been blending player-based metrics with team-level trends for a while, especially for Spanish sides where individual brilliance can flip a game. For instance, I lean on stuff like expected goals (xG) and key passes for attacking players, but I cross-reference that with team possession stats and recent head-to-heads. It’s helped me spot value bets, like when a mid-table side’s star forward is in form but the market’s sleeping on them.
What I’ve found is that player stats—like shots on target or dribbles completed—can be gold for prop bets, especially on guys like Vinícius or Griezmann who drive their teams. But you need the match context to avoid traps. For example, a team with high possession might dominate corners but still lose if their defense is shaky, like Valencia sometimes this season. I also peek at disciplinary stats—cards are a sneaky market when you know a ref’s tendencies or a team’s tackling habits.
Mixing these angles does cut down on variance, like you said, but it’s not foolproof. I got burned on a few Atlético matches where their low xG still converted into scrappy wins. Curious what systems you’re prioritizing—any specific player metrics or team trends you’re finding reliable? Also, are you factoring in stuff like home/away splits or fatigue from midweek games? That’s been a game-changer for me with squads like Sevilla who rotate heavily.