Alright, let’s dive into my Week 1 results with this progressive betting system I’ve been testing on NBA games. I figured I’d share the full breakdown since some of you were curious about how it’s going. For those who missed my intro post, I’m experimenting with a modified Martingale approach, but tailored to basketball betting to account for the high variance in game outcomes. The goal is to see if I can grind out consistent profits while managing risk.
Here’s the setup: I’m focusing on moneyline bets for underdogs with odds between +150 and +250. Why? Because NBA games can be unpredictable, and these odds give a decent balance of risk and reward. Instead of doubling my bet after every loss like a classic Martingale, I increase it by 50% to soften the blow on my bankroll. If I win, I reset to my base unit, which is $20 for now. I’m also capping my progression at four bets to avoid chasing losses into oblivion. Games are picked based on a mix of stats—team form, road vs. home performance, and injury reports. Nothing too fancy, just enough to avoid betting blind.
Week 1 covered seven days, and I placed bets on 12 games. Out of those, I hit five wins and seven losses. Sounds rough, but let’s break it down. My wins came from bets on the Hornets (+180), Wizards (+200), Pistons (+160), Raptors (+170), and a lucky one on the Spurs (+220). Losses were mostly from teams that looked good on paper but choked in the fourth quarter—looking at you, Nets and Magic. Total staked was $342, with returns of $410, so I’m up $68 for the week. Not life-changing, but it’s a start.
What I noticed: the system works best when you’re disciplined about resetting after a win. I got tempted to keep pushing after a loss streak, but sticking to the 50% increase kept me from digging too deep. The downside? A couple of times, I hit my four-bet cap and had to eat the loss, which stings. Also, underdog betting means you’re sweating a lot of close games. If you don’t have the stomach for it, this might not be your thing.
I’m tweaking a couple of things for Week 2. First, I’m narrowing my odds range to +160 to +200 to avoid some of the long shots. Second, I’m adding a filter for games where the favorite has played back-to-back road games—tired legs can flip outcomes. I’ll keep tracking every bet and share the numbers next week.
If anyone’s running something similar or has thoughts on tweaking the progression, I’d love to hear it. Also, how do you guys handle the mental grind of waiting for those wins to hit?
Here’s the setup: I’m focusing on moneyline bets for underdogs with odds between +150 and +250. Why? Because NBA games can be unpredictable, and these odds give a decent balance of risk and reward. Instead of doubling my bet after every loss like a classic Martingale, I increase it by 50% to soften the blow on my bankroll. If I win, I reset to my base unit, which is $20 for now. I’m also capping my progression at four bets to avoid chasing losses into oblivion. Games are picked based on a mix of stats—team form, road vs. home performance, and injury reports. Nothing too fancy, just enough to avoid betting blind.
Week 1 covered seven days, and I placed bets on 12 games. Out of those, I hit five wins and seven losses. Sounds rough, but let’s break it down. My wins came from bets on the Hornets (+180), Wizards (+200), Pistons (+160), Raptors (+170), and a lucky one on the Spurs (+220). Losses were mostly from teams that looked good on paper but choked in the fourth quarter—looking at you, Nets and Magic. Total staked was $342, with returns of $410, so I’m up $68 for the week. Not life-changing, but it’s a start.
What I noticed: the system works best when you’re disciplined about resetting after a win. I got tempted to keep pushing after a loss streak, but sticking to the 50% increase kept me from digging too deep. The downside? A couple of times, I hit my four-bet cap and had to eat the loss, which stings. Also, underdog betting means you’re sweating a lot of close games. If you don’t have the stomach for it, this might not be your thing.
I’m tweaking a couple of things for Week 2. First, I’m narrowing my odds range to +160 to +200 to avoid some of the long shots. Second, I’m adding a filter for games where the favorite has played back-to-back road games—tired legs can flip outcomes. I’ll keep tracking every bet and share the numbers next week.
If anyone’s running something similar or has thoughts on tweaking the progression, I’d love to hear it. Also, how do you guys handle the mental grind of waiting for those wins to hit?