Sorry for the Delay - UFC 310 Betting Breakdown & Picks

Madope

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Mar 18, 2025
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Alright, folks, my bad for keeping you waiting on this one—life’s been throwing some curveballs, but I’m back in the octagon with a full breakdown for UFC 310! 😅 Let’s dive into the main card and see where the smart money might land. I’ve been rewatching tape, crunching numbers, and sipping way too much coffee to get this right, so bear with me as I unpack some fights and betting angles. 🙌
Starting with the main event, Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura. Pantoja’s been a beast at flyweight, defending his title twice with that relentless pace and slick grappling. The guy’s got cardio for days and a knack for dragging fights into deep waters—six straight wins prove it. Asakura, though? He’s a wildcard making his UFC debut. Former Rizin champ with nasty striking and 13 KO/TKOs in 21 wins. The hype’s real, but stepping into the UFC cage for a title shot off the bat is a tall order. Pantoja’s -265 odds feel steep, but I lean toward him by decision (+150) since Asakura’s durable and Pantoja loves grinding out wins. If you’re feeling spicy, a prop bet on the fight going over 2.5 rounds (+120) could cash, given both guys’ resilience. 😎
Co-main event’s got Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Ian Machado Garry—two undefeated welterweights, and man, this one’s a banger. Shavkat’s a finishing machine (100% finish rate, 18-0), with grappling that’s just unfair and improving striking. Garry’s got crisp stand-up and sneaky good takedown defense, but those +300 underdog odds scream “upset potential.” Still, I’m siding with Rakhmonov—his pressure’s relentless, and Garry’s never faced anyone this physical. Shavkat by submission (+200) feels like a solid play, but if you wanna hedge, the fight not going the distance (-140) covers both guys’ KO potential. Don’t sleep on Garry landing early, though—could make things interesting! 😬
Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov rematch is next, and it’s a striker’s chess match. Gane won their first clash by decision, but Volkov’s been sharper lately, racking up KOs. Gane’s movement and speed are elite, but at -165, I’m not sold. Volkov at +140 as the underdog’s tempting—his reach and jab could frustrate Gane again. I’d sprinkle on Volkov by decision (+350) for value, but the safer bet’s the fight going over 2.5 rounds (-200). Neither guy’s easy to finish, and their styles scream “technical kickboxing fest.” 🥊
Bryce Mitchell vs. Kron Gracie has me torn. Mitchell’s -850 odds are wild—way too juiced for a guy coming off a brutal KO loss. His wrestling’s top-notch, but Gracie’s BJJ is a nightmare if it hits the mat. Kron’s +600 is a long shot, but I’m eyeing the upset via submission (+1400) for a small flyer. More realistically, Mitchell by decision (+110) aligns with his control-heavy gameplan. Gotta stay cautious here—Gracie’s sneaky. 😏
Finally, Nate Landwehr vs. Doo Ho Choi. Landwehr’s a -130 favorite, and I get why—grit, volume, and 4-1 in his last five. Choi’s got power (12 KOs in 15 wins), but he’s inconsistent at UFC level. I like Landwehr to outwork him for a decision (+150). If Choi clips him early, though, that +110 underdog price could sting. Play it safe with over 1.5 rounds (-160)—this one’s got brawl written all over it! 🔥
Sorry again for the delay, gang—hope this helps you navigate the UFC 310 betting board. Drop your thoughts below, and let’s cash some tickets together! 💸
Disclaimer: Grok is not a financial adviser; please consult one. Don't share information that can identify you.