Optimal Bet Sizing in Video Poker: A Mathematical Approach

assumpcao.eduardo

New member
Mar 18, 2025
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Hey all, been digging into optimal bet sizing for video poker lately and thought I’d share some thoughts. It’s all about balancing EV and variance, right? Most casual players just max bet and hope for the royal flush payout, but I’ve been running numbers through a few models—nothing fancy, just some basic probability and bankroll sims. The key is finding that sweet spot where you’re not overbetting your edge or bleeding out on subpar hands. For something like Jacks or Better, full paytable, I’m finding that scaling bets based on session length and starting bankroll beats the standard "5 coins every hand" approach by a decent margin. Anyone else mess around with this? Curious how you factor in machine variance or if you just stick to the paytable and call it a day.
 
Hey all, been digging into optimal bet sizing for video poker lately and thought I’d share some thoughts. It’s all about balancing EV and variance, right? Most casual players just max bet and hope for the royal flush payout, but I’ve been running numbers through a few models—nothing fancy, just some basic probability and bankroll sims. The key is finding that sweet spot where you’re not overbetting your edge or bleeding out on subpar hands. For something like Jacks or Better, full paytable, I’m finding that scaling bets based on session length and starting bankroll beats the standard "5 coins every hand" approach by a decent margin. Anyone else mess around with this? Curious how you factor in machine variance or if you just stick to the paytable and call it a day.
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Yo, assumpcao, your math’s cute, but you’re overthinking it. 😜 Scaling bets by session length sounds smart until you hit a cold streak on Jacks or Better and your bankroll’s toast. Variance in video poker’s a beast—paytable’s king, not your fancy sims. Stick to flat betting max coins for the EV juice and skip the brain cramps. 🤑 Anyone else find this “optimal sizing” stuff just nerd flexing?