Hey folks, hope you're all riding a good wave at the tables lately. I’ve been digging into the numbers for the upcoming Euro matches, and I couldn’t resist sharing some thoughts with you. Let’s break it down and see where the value might be hiding.
First off, I’ve been eyeing the Spain vs. Italy clash. Spain’s been solid lately, with their possession game on point—averaging around 62% in their last five outings. Italy’s no slouch either, though, with a defense that’s only conceded 0.8 goals per match this year. The bookies have Spain at 2.10 to win, Italy at 3.40, and the draw at 3.20. Now, looking at the stats, Spain’s got a slight edge, but that 3.20 for a draw feels tempting. These two have a history of tight games—three of their last five head-to-heads ended level. I ran some quick calcs based on their expected goals (xG) trends, and I’m seeing a 33% chance of a stalemate. That’s juicy value if you ask me.
Then there’s England vs. France. England’s attack has been clicking, averaging 1.9 goals per game in qualifiers, while France’s midfield has been suffocating teams—opponents are barely getting 8 shots off against them per match. The odds are tight: England at 2.60, France at 2.75, draw at 3.10. I dug into the possession-to-shot ratios and adjusted for defensive solidity. England’s got a 38% chance to nick it, but France’s counterattacking style gives them a 41% shot at the win, by my numbers. That 2.75 feels like it’s undervaluing Les Bleus a touch. I’d lean toward a small punt on France here.
Oh, and don’t sleep on the Portugal vs. Germany game. Portugal’s got Ronaldo still doing Ronaldo things—1.2 goals per game in his last ten caps—and Germany’s been inconsistent, conceding in four of their last five. Odds are Portugal at 2.85, Germany at 2.50, draw at 3.30. The stats scream goals: both teams have an xG above 1.5 per match recently. I’d say there’s a 60% chance we see over 2.5 goals at 1.90 odds. Might even sprinkle a bit on Portugal outright if you’re feeling bold.
Anyway, that’s my little dive into the numbers. I’m curious what you all think—any angles I’m missing? Always good to bounce this stuff around with you lot. Let me know if you’re leaning a different way or if there’s a match you want me to crunch next.
First off, I’ve been eyeing the Spain vs. Italy clash. Spain’s been solid lately, with their possession game on point—averaging around 62% in their last five outings. Italy’s no slouch either, though, with a defense that’s only conceded 0.8 goals per match this year. The bookies have Spain at 2.10 to win, Italy at 3.40, and the draw at 3.20. Now, looking at the stats, Spain’s got a slight edge, but that 3.20 for a draw feels tempting. These two have a history of tight games—three of their last five head-to-heads ended level. I ran some quick calcs based on their expected goals (xG) trends, and I’m seeing a 33% chance of a stalemate. That’s juicy value if you ask me.
Then there’s England vs. France. England’s attack has been clicking, averaging 1.9 goals per game in qualifiers, while France’s midfield has been suffocating teams—opponents are barely getting 8 shots off against them per match. The odds are tight: England at 2.60, France at 2.75, draw at 3.10. I dug into the possession-to-shot ratios and adjusted for defensive solidity. England’s got a 38% chance to nick it, but France’s counterattacking style gives them a 41% shot at the win, by my numbers. That 2.75 feels like it’s undervaluing Les Bleus a touch. I’d lean toward a small punt on France here.
Oh, and don’t sleep on the Portugal vs. Germany game. Portugal’s got Ronaldo still doing Ronaldo things—1.2 goals per game in his last ten caps—and Germany’s been inconsistent, conceding in four of their last five. Odds are Portugal at 2.85, Germany at 2.50, draw at 3.30. The stats scream goals: both teams have an xG above 1.5 per match recently. I’d say there’s a 60% chance we see over 2.5 goals at 1.90 odds. Might even sprinkle a bit on Portugal outright if you’re feeling bold.
Anyway, that’s my little dive into the numbers. I’m curious what you all think—any angles I’m missing? Always good to bounce this stuff around with you lot. Let me know if you’re leaning a different way or if there’s a match you want me to crunch next.
