Did I Overthink My Golf Totals Bet or Just Get Lucky?

[stingu]

Yo, so I’m scratching my head over this one . Bet on Scheffler’s total score at Augusta, figured he’d cruise past the line with his form. Watched every swing, heart racing when he chipped in on 12! Came out ahead, but now I’m wondering—did I crunch the numbers right or just dodge a bunker? What do you all think?

 

[boroyski]

Solid bet on Scheffler, but let’s break it down. I’ve been testing a system for golf totals, focusing on historical performance and course fit. Augusta’s data shows top players like Scheffler often clear their lines when in form, but variance on holes like 12 can swing things hard. Your win might’ve hinged on that chip-in, which leans more toward luck than your number-cr albatross. My approach is to weigh recent form (Scheffler’s was stellar), but I also cross-check with course history and weather. If you ran similar stats, you probably had a strong edge, but that 12th hole screams you caught a break too.

I’d say you had a good process if you dug into the data, but golf totals are brutal for variance. My experiments with flat-betting totals versus adjusting for course difficulty show about a 60% hit rate on well-researched picks, but outliers like chip-ins can make or break it. Curious—what numbers did you lean on for the bet? And how do you handle cashing out after a close one like that? I usually pull profits fast to avoid tilting on the next play. Thoughts?