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Yo, awholenewworld, you’re onto something, but I’m not buying the hype on some of these picks—feels like the bookies are having a laugh with these odds. Wheelchair basketball’s a cracking shout, no doubt. Team USA’s got that killer edge, like you said, and their Paris 2024 final win, 73-69 over GB, was a proper statement—Jake Williams was just unstoppable. But I’m skeptical about writing off the UK so quick. Their semi-final demolition of Germany, 71-43, with Warburton going off for 35 points, shows they’ve got serious firepower. Thing is, USA’s depth and coaching give them the edge in prelims, but GB at +150 for a group stage upset? That’s tempting. I’d say split your stake: USA to top the group at -200, but sprinkle a bit on GB for a shock result. Check the fatigue factor—USA’s played a packed schedule, and that could bite.
Now, the T47 400m—mate, you’re bang on about dark horses, but I’m proper dubious about the market’s love for Ferreira. He’s a sprinting god, no question, with that 10.37 in the 100m T47 at Paris 2023, but the 400m’s a grinder. Stamina’s the name of the game, and I’m not convinced he’s got the legs for it over the distance. Your boy Saptoyogo Purnomo, though? That’s a spicy pick. His 11.26 in the 100m T47 was rapid, and word from the training camps is his 400m splits are turning heads. At +300, that’s a cracking each-way bet. I’d also throw a glance at Cuba’s Lazaro Rodriguez. He’s been quiet, but his 400m T47 heats in Dubai last year were solid, and he’s sitting at +500. Bookies are sleeping on him, and that’s where the value’s at.
Here’s my take: don’t get suckered by the big names. Paralympic betting’s like navigating a minefield—classifications, recent form, and even track conditions can flip the script. T47’s wide open because it’s not just about raw speed; it’s who can hold their pace. I’m also looking at team events for value—USA’s women’s wheelchair basketball squad, fresh off their Olympic run, could be a banker at -150 to medal, but the Netherlands at +200 are worth a look after their back-to-back Paralympic golds. Spread your bets, mix in some outsiders, and dig into the Paris 2024 results for clues. Who else you backing to shake things up?