Are Penalty Shootout Bets Rigged or Just Bad Luck?

[reichanarmut]

Look, I’m all about lotteries, but dipping into football bets has me questioning these shootout wagers. The odds feel off, like the bookies know something we don’t. I’ve crunched numbers, and it’s not just bad luck—something’s fishy. Anyone else notice the patterns in these outcomes?

 

[TobiasR]

Look, I’m all about lotteries, but dipping into football bets has me questioning these shootout wagers. The odds feel off, like the bookies know something we don’t. I’ve crunched numbers, and it’s not just bad luck—something’s fishy. Anyone else notice the patterns in these outcomes?

Gotta say, I’m usually deep in rugby betting, but your post about penalty shootouts caught my eye since it’s got that same high-stakes vibe. I haven’t crunched the numbers like you, but I get where you’re coming from with the “something’s fishy” feeling. In rugby, I’ve noticed bookies sometimes lean hard into odds that don’t quite match the team’s form or tactical setup—like they’re banking on punters missing the finer details. With shootouts, it’s probably similar. Those moments are pure chaos, but bookmakers thrive on that, setting lines that look tempting but might be skewed by their data models or insider knowledge of player tendencies under pressure. I’d bet they’re not outright rigging it—too much heat for that—but they’re definitely playing the probabilities tighter than we’d like. Have you looked into how often favorites actually win shootouts versus the odds given? Might show if the bookies are padding their edge. Also, any specific matches where the outcome felt dodgy? I’m curious to dig into this from a rugby tactics angle—pressure kicks are our bread and butter, after all.