Alright, let's cut through the noise on this one. I've been tracking odds movements for the big races this week, and something stinks. Bookies are flashing these so-called "generous" bonuses—extra places, enhanced odds, you name it—but the second you dig into the numbers, it’s like chasing a ghost. Take the 3:30 at Cheltenham yesterday. The favorite’s odds tightened from 2.5 to 1.8 in under an hour, right after the bookies rolled out their "special offer." Meanwhile, the each-way terms looked juicy, but the place odds for the outsiders barely budged. Coincidence? Doubt it.
I ran the numbers across three major bookies, and the pattern’s clear: they dangle these bonuses to pull in punters, then tweak the odds to claw back any edge. It’s not just one race either—same story at Ascot last month. The implied probability on their markets is creeping higher than it should, especially when they’re hyping up these promotions. You’re not getting a deal; you’re getting played. Anyone else clocking this, or am I just shouting into the wind here?
I ran the numbers across three major bookies, and the pattern’s clear: they dangle these bonuses to pull in punters, then tweak the odds to claw back any edge. It’s not just one race either—same story at Ascot last month. The implied probability on their markets is creeping higher than it should, especially when they’re hyping up these promotions. You’re not getting a deal; you’re getting played. Anyone else clocking this, or am I just shouting into the wind here?
