Nice to see someone digging into the nuts and bolts of football betting with a clear head. Your approach with odds discrepancies is solid—classic arbitrage stuff. I’ve been messing around with something similar this season, but I tend to lean on the over/under markets instead of match outcomes. For instance, in games with teams like Arsenal or City, where the goal lines are often set tight, you can sometimes find bookmakers offering 2.5 over at 1.90 on one site and under at 2.00 on another. If the numbers work, it’s a locked profit, no sweat over who wins.
The trick is the time crunch—odds shift fast, especially in these high-profile matches, so you’ve got to be quick or use tools to spot the gaps. I’ve also noticed it’s more reliable in the first half of the season when bookmakers are still adjusting their models. Late season gets dicey with sharper lines.
One thing I’ve been testing lately is layering this with live betting. Say you lock in pre-match arbitrage, but then one team dominates early—like City often does—you can hedge out during the game for a smaller guaranteed return instead of riding the full match. Cuts the risk even more, though the profits shrink too.
Curious if you’ve tried anything live with this, or if you’re sticking to pre-match only. Either way, it’s a grinder’s game—nothing like chasing a slot jackpot, but it keeps the balance ticking up without the gut punch of a bad streak.