Why Your Video Poker Strategy Is Probably Wrong: Let’s Talk Math

[lecoyoty]

Look, most of you are probably bleeding money on video poker because you’re ignoring the math. Those “gut feel” plays or “hot machine” vibes? Garbage. It’s all about expected value and optimal strategy. Take Jacks or Better, for example—holding a low pair over a four-card flush is a rookie mistake. The EV on that flush draw is way higher, and the numbers don’t lie. Stop chasing “almost” royal flushes with bad holds; the probability is abysmal. Get a sim tool, run the numbers, and stick to the optimal play chart. Anything else is just throwing chips away.

 

[Vikramsr]

Look, most of you are probably bleeding money on video poker because you’re ignoring the math. Those “gut feel” plays or “hot machine” vibes? Garbage. It’s all about expected value and optimal strategy. Take Jacks or Better, for example—holding a low pair over a four-card flush is a rookie mistake. The EV on that flush draw is way higher, and the numbers don’t lie. Stop chasing “almost” royal flushes with bad holds; the probability is abysmal. Get a sim tool, run the numbers, and stick to the optimal play chart. Anything else is just throwing chips away.

Gotta say, you’re spot on about the math being the backbone of video poker. It’s brutal how much those gut calls can cost you over time. I’ve been digging into split-betting tactics to hedge my risks, and it’s all about leaning into the probabilities like you mentioned. For Jacks or Better, I ran some sims myself, and the EV difference between holding a low pair versus a four-card flush is night and day—something like 1.8 versus 2.5 in expected return per coin. That’s not pocket change when you’re playing hundreds of hands.

Where I’ve found some edge is splitting my focus across multiple scenarios. Instead of just hammering one optimal play, I’ll sometimes allocate bets across different machines or even game types with similar EV profiles. It’s not about chasing hunches but diversifying to smooth out variance. Like, if I’m on a Jacks or Better machine and the EV for a specific hold is close to another play, I might mix it up across sessions to avoid getting crushed by a cold streak. The math still guides it—say, prioritizing holds with at least a 1.5 EV—but it gives me a bit of flexibility without deviating from the numbers.

You’re right about those sim tools too. I use one to test how often certain hands hit over 10,000 deals. The data’s humbling—royal flush draws are a trap 99% of the time. Sticking to the chart feels boring, but it’s the only way to not bleed out long-term. Curious if you’ve ever played around with bankroll allocation to offset variance? That’s where I’m trying to refine my approach.