Been enjoying the poker talk, but your post about hockey betting really hit home. I spend a lot of time digging into KHL and other continental hockey leagues, and there’s definitely a crossover in how you approach poker and sports betting—both reward you for seeing what others don’t. Your point about teams on back-to-backs is spot-on. I’ve noticed something similar with squads playing high-intensity games early in a road trip. They often come out flat in the second or third match, especially if they’re up against a rested home team. The odds don’t always reflect that fatigue factor, and it’s where I’ve found some solid edges.
One thing I lean into is analyzing goaltender stats beyond just save percentage. For example, I track how goalies perform against specific teams or in high-pressure situations, like tight divisional matchups. Last season in the KHL, I noticed certain backup goalies were quietly outplaying starters when given a chance against top teams—books were slow to catch up, and I’d ride those underdogs for nice payouts. Another angle is special teams. Teams with strong penalty kills but weaker power plays can keep games tighter than expected, so I’ll often look at the under on goals when two such teams face off. Hit rate was around 58% for me last year on those bets, which isn’t bad for grinding out a profit.
I also pay attention to line changes and injuries, but not just the obvious ones. A third-line winger being out can mess with a team’s checking game more than people think, and it’s rarely priced into the odds. Coaching matters too—like, some benches get way too conservative when protecting a lead, and that’s a spot to bet on a late push from the trailing team. It’s all about finding those little gaps in the market, same as reading a poker table for tells. Curious if anyone else here mixes hockey bets with their card game, or maybe you’ve got a system for another sport that’s paying off? Always looking to pick up new angles.
